Friday, April 30, 2010

Contracts and Worth Cont.

Brenden-
Pujols, -1b Berkman, 1b H Ramirez, SS. Cabrera, C Jones 3b/LF, Holliday LF, Fielder 1b , Braun Lf, Gonzalez 1b and Carlos Lee Lf.

09 - 308 at bats - 10 home runs - 11 steals - 50 runs. - .415 obp
08 - Full season - 27hr - 112 Rbi's - 116 runs - 25 steals - .376 opb -GOLD GLOVE
07 - 33 hr - 112 Rbi's - 23 steals - 97 runs - 23 - steals - .353 obp - GOLD GLOVE
06 - 41 hr - 116 Rbi's - 127 runs - 18 steals - .388 obp - GOLD GLOVE
05 - 582 ab - 16 Hr - 78 RBI's - 17 steals - .330 Obp
04 - 38 hr- 104 RBI- 121 runs - 42 steals - .367 Obp
03 - 26 Hr - 100 Rbi- 102 Runs - 41 steals - .346 Obp
02 - 29 Hr - 105 Rbi - 114 Runs - 35 steals - .389 Obp
01 - 24 Hr- 101 Rbi - 106 Runs - 31 steals - .362 Obp
00 - 372 ab - 7hr - 44Rbi - 49 Runs - 13 steals - .309 OBP
1999 AL Rookie Of the year.
Salary $19,401,571 8th in baseball.
Grady Sizemore's Top Production Years By Category:
HR: 33 - 2008 (Only Time over 30)
Rbi- 90 - 2008
Run: 134 -2006 (7 more runs than Beltran's high in same year)
SB: 38 - 2008
Obp: .390 - 2007
2007-2008 Gold Gloves in Center feild.
Salary $5,766,666
As Center Feilders go, this is the closest comparison I could find. And if we take the 1 season wonder arguement and apply it to somebosy that is not a Met (FOR ONCE) you will see that if you take away 2008 there is not even a comparable year.
-Now since you were nice enough to give me 3 &1/2 outfielders to compare to I will make a few comparisons. But lets not be silly and say that an Outfeilder is an Outfeilder is an Outfeilder. Belran's defining defensive playoff moment with Houston was that diving catch against the Cardinals that was impossible yet done. Matt Holliday's defining defensive playoff moment sent his team home for the year on Air Buckner.
Lee (Who can't catch a cold salary $19,000,000 $401,571 less than Beltran)
HR - 37 in 2006
Rbi: 119 in 2007
Runs- 102 - 2006
SB- 19 -2006
Obp - .342
Gold Gloves 0
Holliday (Salary $16,333,327 and will rise every year)
Hr.-36 - 2007
Rbi- 137 - 2007 (Better than Beltran's Best)
Run- 120 - 2007
Sb- 28 - 2008
Obp- .409
Gold Gloves- Only the One he had made for the playoff game last year.
Ryan Braun( Who has only been pro for 3 Seasons so yes he might do better but yes he might also get hurt) Salary$1,287,500 hasn't played for arbitration yet.
Hr-37
Rbi- 114
Run- 113
SB- 20
Obp- .386
Gold Glove- 0
And Just for Fun
Career High- Hanley Ramirez- Carlos Beltran - Winner
Hr- 33 41 Beltran by 7
Rbi- 106 116 Beltran by 10
Run- 125 121 Ramirez by 4
SB- 51 42 Ramirez by 9
Obp- .410 .389 Ramirez by .021
Gold Gloves- 0 3 Beltran by 3

So I get my numbers from the strangest place... I GET THEM FROM THE NUMBERS.

Tavman-
And again Gold Gloves rarely go to who should get them when put into statistical analysis such UZR and UZR/150. You get a one and chances are you are going to get more based on rep. Now I'm not saying Beltran isn't a damn good fielder (when he clearly is) and isn't a great five tool player but he's not one of the top three OF in the game and arguably (which I am clearly arguing) doesn't deserve the multiple gold gloves. Based on the above stats to the best three in the Natl league were Jayson Werth, Randy Wynn, and Cody Ross.

But we are talking money and contracts. He's one of the highest paid players in the games and his numbers just don't back that. Guys like Braun and Hanley don't count as their still under early deals but the point is that Beltran is paid like one of the top five guys in baseball and he clearly is not. Now you talk how OF aren't all equal and the other guys are 3b or 1b well that's why those positions are paid more because there is a great difference in the quality of the player and the top tier. Money that big goes to Pitchers and power hitting 1b and 3b not to CF who 162 avg is a very run of the mill
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
162 713 625 113 177 35 7 28 107 30 4 76 113 .283 .360 .496 .856 119 310 11 3 2 7 7
It's the same reason why a left tackle is paid much more that a left guard or center in football because they are worth more. Would you rather have a 19 mil beltran or a 5 mill Sizemore?
162 742 643 113 176 39 8 26 85 26 8 82 143 .273 .364 .480 .845 123 309 6 12 2 3 7
I would rather have the extra 14 mill to spend on other players.

In Discussing Contracts

Tav-For strictly contract and what he (Beltran) gets paid and does he's not worth it. That being said I don't agree with the howard contract. Way way way too much money for a guy who really only hits hour as rbis are a false stat and his ba isn't good. He got king albert money and he's not king albert. Beltrans gets paid right compared to what bay is getting but I think they are both way overrated and way overpaid. I could see beltran go if we get the pieces back.

Brendan-Actually King Albert is underpaid. He signed a 10 year 105m contract back in 2002. I don't really have an opinion about Howard's contract. Although he is more than just a HR guy. His OBP (which in my opinion is more important than batting average is always .360+. Tav, you remember when we went to the Phillies game many years ago. They actually played the Superman theme when Jim Thome came up to bat. For them to trade him in favor of Howard means that they saw something. They were considering offering Howard to the Mets for Milledge. (Remember that was when they were both top 10 prospects and there was no rivalry to the extent that there is now. It was the NL East against the Braves back then.) I think its funny that he got that contract with his own father as his agent. Last year, reports were that he was offered Pujolz/Beltran money and he wanted A-Rod money. I thought he was nuts. Well, he got A-Rod money. One is worth what somebody is willing to pay him for I suppose.
Beltran has been worth every penny for baseball reasons alone. I have always said that Reyes is the engine of that offense. Beltran has been the transmission. His first season was poor because he got hurt but still played to justify his contract. When he finally got going he got Mike Cameron's head jammed in his face at high impact. After that he has been a consistent anchor in the line-up until last season. He is tied for the Mets single season record for home runs. Has won multiple gold gloves, and has been in the top 3 in all offensive categories for most of his tenure. I am trying to think of a more valuable center fielders in the past decade. Can't think of too many. Andrew Jones maybe. Matt Kemp is in the early stages but does not have near the body of work. Hunter/Victorino/Sizemore are all in that second tier below him though Sizemore would be a closer second. Who am I forgetting?

Tavman-Ok I will agree that King Albert is underpaid. If he was getting the Howard contract I would say, "that's about right". Howard isn't worth that but you are worth what someone will give you. Now I'm not sure where you are getting you stats but you're wrong. Howard had two years of great OBP one that was a crazy 412 and another that was 392 but two of the three last years it's was under 340 and the 360 the third year wouldn't even put him anywhere in the top ten. He's 27 in OBP since he's playing. Hardly anything insane. He does however always finish in the top ten in OPS and top five in HR but still not worth 25 mil to me. Now as for Beltran, again I'm not sure where you are getting your stats but he has never finished in the top 3 in any of the major statistical categories. His best HR was in 06 when he finished 5th. Only one other year was he in the top ten. Same can be said for Extra Base hits. And that's the thing. Throw out 06 and he's been just a really good ball player. Nothing amazing. Only once in the top of the league adjusted OPS (again 06), Slugging (06), OPS (06) and Adj batting run and wins (both 06 as well) And that's just in the NL. But you know what he has been in the top ten of every year in the league is the highest paid. In 08 he was the highest paid guy in the league and last year number 2. Would you say he's a top 10 player? Not according to the stats. Barring his 06 career year he's not on the top ten anywhere. The names you see Pujols, Berkman, H Ramirez, Cabrera, C Jones, Holliday, Fielder, Braun, Gonzalez and Carlos Lee are all consistently in the top ten. You can't say that about our 19 mil plus man. Now you can talk about injuries but he has only been injured last year. He missed about 25 games in 06 (which add to the impressive state of that year) but until last year he was playing a full season and still not producing the numbers someone of his supposed stature should be putting up. You say he's top three so I assume you must mean Mets because thats' where he is top three. Wright and Reyes are more valuable to the team and Wright's name is in the top ten in statistical categories a lot more than Beltran.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

And the Mets Hype is that just hype

I know he's young. I know it's early in his career and that you can't judge a guy after an inning but what I do know is that if Jenrry Mejia was what the Mets claimed he was he wouldn't of gotten rocked in his first appearance. All spring we had to listen to how he was the next Mariano and the next great pitcher. He was the youngest Met to make the roster since Doc. Now they are downplaying his appearance the same way they would of been bragging about it had he come in been lights out. But what they are forgetting to tell us is that many many young pitchers have come in and not got rocked. He didn't fool anyone and was hit hard by every batter except pitcher Nolasco. For the Mets it's all about the image and the puffery to get "we the fans" to forget about the fact that they have no pitching or that they are starting off in worse shape then it did last year. And that the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins have gotten better. Even the lowly Nationals are a much better team then they were last year. Maine, their number two starter got rocked and should not be a number two starter. Now they are bragging that they have confidence in Niese because what else are they supposed to say? As we have seen the past few years all they can do is spin their team and performance because the actual team and performance isn't getting it done. And frankly I'm tired of the Mets PR BS.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

And HGH hits the Mets

Ny Times is reporting that investigators are looking into Beltran and Delgado for possible HGH abuse. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/03/sports/baseball/03galea.html

Hope Springs Eternal

From Brendan (AKA The optimist)

First spring training game is in less than a half an hour. (That is good)
Reyes nailed the first intrasquad pitch he saw for a triple. (Also good)
I am likely to make an extremely bold prediction concerning Oliver Perez. I just need to see him throw one pitch to one live batter wearing another team's logo. (That's insane. But curious)
Finally; If anybody knows the dangers of putting pressure on a young player before their spikes are paid for its Daryl Strawberry.
Yet, his comments about Jenrry Mejia were nothing short of ballsy. I am just taking some quotes from his statement because I do not want to take other sites and sources and put them on our blog. (Really its Erik's Blog since he had the genius idea of getting a bunch of Met fans from all over the country who discusses the team in such a multi-opinionated way. Which reminds me. Erik; Can you put this on the blog site as I am having World Wide Web difficulties?)
Daryl Said: "You know how something happens every spring that no one expects? "I already know what it is this year ... that Mejia kid. Did you see him today?"
He goes on to make a comparison that is so bold I am not sure it was a fake web site. I can not emphasize enough that this is Daryl Strawberry we are talking about. A guy who now makes his living teaching young players to avoid the traps that he had fallen into. He is also a member of the 1996 World Champion Yankees. (He was ours first) That gave him a birds-eye view of the zygote stages of one pitcher's career that grew into nothing short of a present legend future ... I would say hall of famer but lets face it. As much as I hate the Yankees, when Mariano Rivera is eligible for the Hall, not only will he be a first ballot winner, he will probably have the largest vote percentage since Lou Gehrig.
And Daryl Says:
"I know, I know," Strawberry said. "But did you see his ball move? Awesome. That ball cuts. It's natural, too." Then he lowered his voice, lest he share his observation with the world. "I honestly can say I've never seen anyone else throw a pitch like that except for Mariano."

He watched Mejia pitch from 3 different angles yesterday then went to Jerry and said: "Do you know what you have there? I mean, do you realize who that is throwing out there? That's your next closer. That's your Mo Rivera."
If anybody else had said this I would call it a Mets P.R. Stunt or a pre-trade hype attempt. But this is Straw. He is well aware of his own shortcomings and who he could have been. For him to say this out loud. Let alone with the media around. (That's...Amazin')

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Would the Top MLB prospects please stand up? What's that no Mets. Oh lord.

So MLB network ran a special on the top fifty prospects in baseball and you know how many Mets farm players were on the list? Zero. Zilch. None. The Giants had two in the top ten. The Red Sox had four on the list as did the Royals and Rays. Phillies and Braves both had three and the Braves had the top guy on the list. None of this is good. It just shows how poorly the Mets have drafted under Omar. Their farm is mid level and they keep talking about the latin development of players but they still aren't where other teams are.

One of the most frustrating things to watch in the injury plagued year that was 09 was the fact that they barely gave any of the young guys a chance. Do I really need to see Fernando Tatis out there? Really? And now there is talk he might be the starting 1b. You have to be kidding me. It's bad when you hope that Murphy is the starting 1b. And I like the guy. I mean look what Manuel said about him according to the NY Post, “I think Daniel Murphy can do enough that we can survive.” Survive? really that's your ringing endorsement? Excuse me while I go throw up.

Ok I'm back. My point is that Murphy is their best choice because their farm has nothing. It has less talent out there than a Johnson City strip club. It's not good. And that's Omar's job. And once again he has failed. How can the Mets not have a single guy in MLB's Top 50 prospects? Not one. That's pathetic. And it's on Omar and the scouting team. I don't care if the Wilpons won't pay more than the slot. You should still find talent out there. And apparently they can't. And so they should all go.

Monday, February 1, 2010

Welcome to Mets Coast to Coast.. Oh and Omar has to go.

So welcome to Mets Coast to Coast where you will get all the insight and viewpoints from Mets fans. First off you will get my take on things and I have been told by the other cohorts on this blog that I'm the Mets fan that's been burned too many times and don't believe the hype. The other guys aren't as cynical as I am and tend to believe in the good things to come. What's sad is I was like that.

As a kid I rode the Tug McGraw, "You gotta believe" mantra to my soul. I remember yelling at my step-dad to have some faith during the 86 NLCS when he thought it was all over and that Scott would finish them in Game 7. Which is course is what some of the Mets players themselves felt. I didn't and we all know what happened. Then you have Game Six of the World Series (seriously what was with the game sixes that year) and as a kid I believe in the Mets about as deeply as you can believe in anything.

The next year I got my taste of what was to come as the Mets needed to win just one game from the Cards and Keith guaranteed a playoff spot and they got swept. The next year Cone ran his mouth about the Dodgers and they lost in the NLCS. You had the best talent in baseball and you got one World Series. And the only one in my lifetime.

The 90's were a fiasco from charges in the bullpen to Vince's firecrackers. Then Phillips gets them Piazza and they make the series again after a crazy 99 postseason.
But Bobby V leaves Benitez in too long in game one that changes the series. Phillips gets fired as they had one old dude after another. Duquette somehow is able to get some decent talent for crap but gets let go so they can bring in the amazing Omar Minaya. Or so that's what they tell us.

Now this is what we know about Omar. He was a puppet for Selig and the MLB and bankrupted the Expos to the point the Nationals still don't have any talent in their Farm System. Now that could also be due to the Loria deal with the farms switching teams but still Omar didn't do crap in Montreal.

Omar goes out overpays Pedro who proceeds to starts 79 games for the Mets winning 32 games over four years for 50 million dollars. Even the ardent Mets optimist knew he was only going to last three years if they were lucky. The Mets weren't lucky. Now people give Omar an out saying he overpaid but had to bring Beltran (Who himself is overpaid to the Mets). I believe that's BS because you are in NY and Beltran was signing with whoever overpaid for him after an amazing postseason. Last year was his first truly great year in NY. And of course he gets hurt.

Now my cohorts will say that Omar has his hands tied because of the Wilpons but I think a good GM would break free and not put up with that. See Epstein, Boston. Omar doesn't. He doesn't even know what to say in press conferences. He challenges a sportswriter when he is asked a legit question. He couldn't of handle the Randolph firing any worse and the Bernazard situation was a fiasco. Then recently you have the Beltran knee issue. The whole thing is an mess. And yet he trudges on.

Yes I know not having a set budget doesn't help but then go with lowest common denominator and then see if the Wilpons will go higher if you find someone that is worth it. He doesn't do that. He just muddles uselessly on. It's painful to watch and they haven't addressed any of their needs.

They signed Bay to a contract that is worth too much. You have a smart team in the Sox that didn't sign him and I have to look at when they let players go they seem to be spot on with their timing. I have more faith in their doctors then I do in the Mets. And that's not even taking how a larger ballpark will expose his poor d and lessen his numbers. No way he's hitting the HRs and doubles he did at Fenway.

They have more questions that the freaking Riddler when it comes to starting pitching and the bullpen. Then you have Francouer who is a huge question mark. Will he be the player he was for the Mets or the guy that couldn't hit the past couple of years for the Braves?

There is also something horribly wrong with Omar. He doesn't pay attention to stats. As baseball has gone geek with number crunching the Mets are considered one of only two or three teams that don't really use statistical analysis in their moves. Apparently Omar doesn't believe in Sabermatics. Go read Moneyball again and see how Billy Beane describes Omar. It's not a good thing.

Then this week Ken Rosenthal talks about how they blew the Molina deal that every Mets fan though was going to happen. Then they could of sign Pinero but Omar screwed that up. Hell they apparently would of lost Bay had another suitor come up which also means they were outbidding themselves for the guys. Horrible horrible signs.

So I'm not optimistic. This all happens as the Phillies have gotten smarter and the Braves are looking to restock again. And of course the Marlins have enough talent to do some damage should they stay healthy. And all of them are spend a lot less money than the Mets. So as the new year begins and baseball is around the corner, I'm not sure I'm too keen on what this year will bring. In fact I'm horrified. And I can only pray that come October I will look back at this feeling of fear and fright and laugh as I was wrongly a Chicken Little. Only I don't expect to.